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Eibar 3–1 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2023 · Sat, Nov 25, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win52%1.85
Draw27%3.54
Levante UD win20%4.85

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD −0.7554%1.80
Eibar −0.7546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Stoichkov · Eibar
32'⚽Dani Gómez · Levante UD
45'⚽ (pen)José Corpas · Eibar
53'⚽Stoichkov · Eibar
73'⚽Jon Bautista · Eibar
84'🟨Matheus Pereira · Eibar
88'🟨Oriol Rey · Levante UD
90'🟨Juan Berrocal · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots12
7On target7
10Corners3
12Fouls12
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.620.63
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurúa
coach days147.00420.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.352.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.19
dominance (last 5)0.500.46
elo1583.751587.67
elo momentum (last 5)14.23-55.68
eye test v10.87-0.57
eye trend v1-0.430.16
first sub minute (last 10)63.8048.40
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.700.63
league points27.0025.00
league rank8.0011.00
matches since blank11.003.00
matches since clean sheet8.004.00
matches since win3.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4078.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2050.40
rest days6.205.00
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.691.47
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0012.00
skill v10.470.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.00
squad age28.2625.25
state index0.38-0.69
sterile dominance v10.190.19
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00