← Segunda División 2023 · Sat, Nov 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Tenerife win | 36% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Amorebieta win | 31% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Amorebieta +0.25 | 60% | 1.61 |
| Tenerife +0.25 | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 68% | 1.42 |
| Over | 32% | 2.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 14 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 |