← Segunda División 2023 · Mon, Oct 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.90 |
| Zaragoza win | 27% | 3.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Burgos −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.49 |
| Over | 36% | 2.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Sinan Bakış · Zaragoza |
| 38' | ⚽ | Víctor Mollejo Carpintero · Zaragoza |
| 45' | 🟨 | Víctor Mollejo Carpintero · Zaragoza |
| 81' | 🟨 | Matos · Burgos |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl Navarro · Burgos |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matos · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| coach days | 151.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1473.65 | 1531.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.47 | -23.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 8.15 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.41 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |