⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Real Racing Club de Santander 1–3 Ferrol

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, Oct 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Racing Club de Santander win44%2.18
Draw31%3.19
Ferrol win25%3.92

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Racing Club de Santander −0.2553%1.85
Ferrol −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Josep Señé · Ferrol
25'⚽Alvaro Mantilla · Real Racing Club de Santander
35'⚽Carlos Vicente · Ferrol
45'🟨Heber Pena Picos · Ferrol
45'⚽ (pen)Heber Pena Picos · Ferrol
47'🟨David Castro · Ferrol
48'⚽Heber Pena Picos · Ferrol
70'🟨Francisco De La Manzanara · Ferrol
75'🟨Moises Delgado · Ferrol
86'🟨Saúl García · Real Racing Club de Santander

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
11Shots17
5On target8
5Corners4
12Fouls22
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Racing Club de SantanderFerrol
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.740.64
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCampos de Sport de El Sardinero
1.00
coach days332.001000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.954.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1539.081454.10
elo momentum (last 5)28.04-7.25
eye test v10.66-0.67
eye trend v10.690.01
first sub minute (last 10)50.9059.70
form points (last 5)12.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.720.71
league points24.0021.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4082.20
possession avg (last 5)50.0052.20
rest days7.157.33
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.851.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.602.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.4011.20
skill v10.160.63
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.60
squad age27.1128.42
state index0.63-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.610.59
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.400.23
threat rate (last 5)0.330.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40