⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Tenerife 2–1 Burgos

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, Oct 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win54%1.83
Draw30%3.21
Burgos win17%5.81

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burgos −0.7553%1.83
Tenerife −0.7547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.51
Over37%2.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Andy Rodríguez · Burgos
37'🟨Dauda Mohammed · Tenerife
42'🟨Álex Corredera · Tenerife
44'🟨Dauda Mohammed · Tenerife
44'🟥Dauda Mohammed · Tenerife
45'🟨Aitor Córdoba · Burgos
56'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Burgos
64'⚽Roberto López · Tenerife
67'🟨Miguel Muñoz Mora · Burgos
69'⚽ (pen)Enric Gallego · Tenerife
77'⚽ (pen)Curro · Burgos

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots14
2On target6
4Corners6
12Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeBurgos
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
coach days99.00129.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.862.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.470.41
elo1557.821475.02
elo momentum (last 5)-16.0326.82
eye test v1-0.24-0.09
eye trend v10.330.20
first sub minute (last 10)55.3050.30
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.78—
league points18.0013.00
league rank9.0013.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6074.80
possession avg (last 5)45.6043.00
rest days4.883.88
scorer concentration0.380.38
season ppg1.801.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.00
skill v1-0.28-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.00
squad age27.5527.77
state index-0.02-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.36-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.290.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.00