← Segunda División 2023 · Fri, Sep 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.08 |
| Cartagena win | 28% | 3.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cartagena +0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Eibar +0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal Cartagonova |