← Serie B 2023 · Fri, May 10, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 43% | 2.31 |
| Lecco win | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lecco +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Modena +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Luca Strizzolo · Modena |
| 22' | ⚽ | Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco |
| 23' | 🟨 | Alessandro Caporale · Lecco |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kleis Bozhanaj · Modena |
| 35' | ⚽ | Luca Strizzolo · Modena |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nicolò Buso · Lecco |
| 67' | 🟨 | Giovanni Crociata · Lecco |
| 76' | 🟨 | Simone Santoro · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lecco | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi |
| coach days | 39.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1328.05 | 1428.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.08 | -11.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| league points | 26.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 5.23 | 5.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 26.81 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |