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Reggiana 1–1 Parma Calcio 1913

← Serie B 2023 · Fri, May 10, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win46%2.10
Reggiana win27%3.75
Draw27%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 +0.2554%1.78
Reggiana +0.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.56
Under39%2.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Manolo Portanova · Reggiana
45'🟨Wylan Cyprien · Parma Calcio 1913
48'🟨Elvis Kabashi · Reggiana
59'🟨Riccardo Fiamozzi · Reggiana
59'🟨Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913
61'⚽ (pen)Ange-Yoan Bonny · Parma Calcio 1913
87'🟨Luca Cigarini · Reggiana
90'🟨Antonio Vergara · Reggiana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots20
3On target6
4Corners4
10Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReggianaParma Calcio 1913
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.690.47
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
2.60
coach days344.00648.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.03
dominance (last 5)0.510.56
elo1409.741605.81
elo momentum (last 5)-15.264.62
eye test v1-0.520.67
eye trend v10.190.09
first sub minute (last 10)46.5047.70
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.760.84
league points46.0075.00
league rank13.001.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0085.80
possession avg (last 5)53.4053.20
rest days5.235.23
scorer concentration0.160.17
season ppg1.242.03
shot diff avg (last 5)0.803.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2015.40
skill v10.851.00
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.605.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.40
squad age26.7424.25
state index-0.590.50
sterile dominance v10.630.22
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.190.31
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80