← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Apr 27, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Minelli
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
| Sudtirol win | 21% | 4.93 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Modena −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.46 |
| Over | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Simone Davì · Sudtirol |
| 54' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 67' | ⚽ | Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
| 72' | 🟨 | Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matteo Rover · Sudtirol |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tommaso Arrigoni · Sudtirol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riccardo Ciervo · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 26.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1424.80 | 1492.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.52 | 20.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| league points | 40.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 31.04 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |