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Modena 1–0 Sudtirol

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Apr 27, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Minelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Modena win49%1.96
Draw30%3.30
Sudtirol win21%4.93

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol −0.550%1.93
Modena −0.550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.46
Over34%2.86

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Simone Davì · Sudtirol
54'🟨Antonio Palumbo · Modena
67'⚽Giovanni Zaro · Modena
72'🟨Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol
80'🟨Matteo Rover · Sudtirol
86'🟨Tommaso Arrigoni · Sudtirol
90'🟨Riccardo Ciervo · Sudtirol

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots6
2On target3
5Corners4
13Fouls17
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricModenaSudtirol
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.580.63
cards avg (last 5)3.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Braglia
coach days26.00148.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.582.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.03
dominance (last 5)0.580.41
elo1424.801492.20
elo momentum (last 5)-14.5220.96
eye test v10.49-0.64
eye trend v10.290.07
first sub minute (last 10)50.4059.00
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
keeper form v10.550.71
league points40.0043.00
league rank13.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win12.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8051.20
rest days7.006.91
scorer concentration0.160.21
season ppg1.181.26
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.808.80
skill v1-0.020.38
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.302.60
sot for avg (last 3)7.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.80
squad age27.7031.04
state index-0.870.02
sterile dominance v1-0.370.79
threat rate (last 10)0.310.17
threat rate (last 3)0.330.19
threat rate (last 5)0.290.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00