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Lecco 1–2 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win56%1.75
Draw24%4.14
Lecco win20%5.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC +0.7552%1.88
Lecco +0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.76
Under45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Nicolò Buso · Lecco
33'🟨Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
58'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
60'⚽Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC
68'🟨Franco Lepore · Lecco
77'🟥Vedran Celjak · Lecco
85'🟨Vittorio Parigini · Lecco

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots23
4On target11
1Corners6
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeccoVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.580.68
cards avg (last 5)2.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Rigamonti Ceppi
coach days19.00536.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.192.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.05
dominance (last 5)0.520.58
elo1354.731573.69
elo momentum (last 5)-1.3420.68
eye test v1-0.340.64
eye trend v10.060.02
first sub minute (last 10)56.9057.20
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.55
keeper form v10.550.73
league points26.0061.00
league rank20.003.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8082.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0051.00
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.260.27
season ppg0.791.85
shot diff avg (last 5)1.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8016.20
skill v10.200.58
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.20
squad age28.5426.02
state index-0.560.68
sterile dominance v10.23-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.200.32
threat rate (last 5)0.240.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.00