← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Apr 20, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 35% | 2.89 |
| Ascoli win | 33% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Ascoli +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.48 |
| Over | 35% | 2.79 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Alessandro Pio Riccio · Modena |
| 46' | 🟨 | Shady Oukhadda · Modena |
| 86' | 🟨 | Luca Magnino · Modena |
| 88' | 🟨 | Patrizio Masini · Ascoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karim Zedadka · Ascoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |
| coach days | 50.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1438.37 | 1422.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.52 | -29.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 33.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 28.47 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |