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Venezia FC 2–0 Brescia

← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: N. Baroni

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win54%1.81
Draw27%3.75
Brescia win19%5.09

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia −0.7553%1.85
Venezia FC −0.7547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Tanner Tessmann · Venezia FC
46'🟨Nicolas Galazzi · Brescia
51'🟨Marin Šverko · Venezia FC
54'🟨Mohamed Fares · Brescia
90'🟨Mato Jajalo · Venezia FC
90'⚽Tanner Tessmann · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots9
6On target4
9Corners3
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCBrescia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.680.66
cards avg (last 5)1.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days530.00165.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.550.55
elo1564.211490.19
elo momentum (last 5)1.6631.10
eye test v10.160.61
eye trend v10.20-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)57.3051.30
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.25
keeper form v10.690.62
league points58.0045.00
league rank4.008.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)52.8049.60
rest days7.008.09
scorer concentration0.280.25
season ppg1.811.41
shot diff avg (last 5)2.202.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2014.60
skill v10.660.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
squad age26.2627.47
state index0.330.30
sterile dominance v10.16-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00