← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC win | 42% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Ascoli win | 28% | 3.51 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Venezia FC +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Jay Idzes · Venezia FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mikael Ellertsson · Venezia FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo Quaranta · Ascoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Di Tacchio · Ascoli |
| 90' | 🟥 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Ascoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |
| coach days | 37.00 | 523.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1434.68 | 1566.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.95 | 11.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.05 | 6.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.31 | 26.50 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |