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Feralpisalo 2–2 Cosenza

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Apr 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Feralpisalo win38%2.61
Cosenza win32%3.06
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Feralpisalo +055%1.81
Cosenza +045%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Andrea La Mantia · Feralpisalo
27'⚽Gennaro Tutino · Cosenza
52'🟨Manuel Marras · Cosenza
54'⚽ (pen)Andrea La Mantia · Feralpisalo
74'🟨Gennaro Tutino · Cosenza
74'⚽Mirko Antonucci · Cosenza
84'🟨Luca Ceppitelli · Feralpisalo
90'🟨Mattia Compagnon · Feralpisalo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots11
6On target2
9Corners5
5Fouls4
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFeralpisaloCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.700.81
cards avg (last 5)1.003.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Leonardo Garilli
coach days188.0036.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.083.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.390.50
elo1433.951399.36
elo momentum (last 5)26.20-32.56
eye test v1-0.41-0.22
eye trend v1-0.060.18
first sub minute (last 10)58.4053.40
form points (last 5)9.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v1—0.69
league points30.0034.00
league rank19.0015.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4078.00
possession avg (last 5)42.2051.00
rest days4.834.96
scorer concentration0.130.31
season ppg0.971.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.40
skill v1-0.610.18
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.80
squad age27.5526.84
state index-0.20-0.77
sterile dominance v1-0.590.29
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.60