← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Apr 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 59% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Lecco win | 17% | 6.57 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.75 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Lecco −0.75 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nicolò Buso · Lecco |
| 46' | 🟨 | Gregorio Tanco · Spezia |
| 48' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Spezia |
| 57' | 🟨 | Andrija Novakovich · Lecco |
| 61' | 🟨 | Eugenio Lamanna · Lecco |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco |
| 66' | 🟥 | Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco |
| 78' | 🟨 | Giovanni Crociata · Lecco |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vittorio Parigini · Lecco |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vedran Celjak · Lecco |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Lecco |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 157.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1470.05 | 1339.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.01 | -36.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 4.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 28.50 |
| state index | 0.11 | -1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |