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Spezia 1–1 Lecco

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Apr 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win59%1.67
Draw24%4.00
Lecco win17%6.57

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia −0.7555%1.75
Lecco −0.7545%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Petko Hristov · Spezia
31'🟨Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco
41'⚽Nicolò Buso · Lecco
46'🟨Gregorio Tanco · Spezia
48'🟨Filippo Bandinelli · Spezia
57'🟨Andrija Novakovich · Lecco
61'🟨Eugenio Lamanna · Lecco
66'🟨Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco
66'🟥Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco
78'🟨Giovanni Crociata · Lecco
84'🟨Vittorio Parigini · Lecco
88'🟨Vedran Celjak · Lecco

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots13
7On target4
6Corners4
19Fouls11
2Yellow cards7
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpeziaLecco
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.670.54
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Picco
coach days157.005.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.03
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.923.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.18
dominance (last 5)0.580.49
elo1470.051339.13
elo momentum (last 5)-0.01-36.38
eye test v10.14-0.85
eye trend v10.310.33
first sub minute (last 10)61.5054.20
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.710.74
league points34.0022.00
league rank16.0020.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win0.0012.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6073.20
possession avg (last 5)50.0049.40
rest days4.964.96
scorer concentration0.170.24
season ppg1.100.71
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.60
skill v1-0.09-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)2.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.80
squad age27.7228.50
state index0.11-1.55
sterile dominance v1-0.18-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20