← Serie B 2023 · Mon, Apr 1, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: K. Bonacina
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 47% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Bari win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Modena −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Sibilli · Bari |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jacopo Manconi · Modena |
| 62' | ⚽ | Raffaele Pucino · Bari |
| 78' | 🟨 | Antonio Pergreffi · Modena |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fabio Ponsi · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matteo Cotali · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1440.42 | 1454.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.53 | -48.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 15.80 | 15.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 28.92 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |