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Ascoli 4–1 Lecco

← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win49%1.98
Draw30%3.26
Lecco win21%4.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lecco −0.551%1.93
Ascoli −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.55

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Karim Zedadka · Ascoli
13'⚽ (pen)Franco Lepore · Lecco
19'⚽ (pen)Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli
34'🟨Mats Lemmens · Lecco
42'⚽ (pen)Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli
45'🟨Marcello Falzerano · Ascoli
46'🟨Davide Guglielmotti · Lecco
71'⚽Giuseppe Bellusci · Ascoli
86'⚽Dávid Ďuriš · Ascoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots15
7On target6
5Corners4
16Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliLecco
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.11
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.16
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days16.0045.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.01
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.407.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.53
elo1431.721349.32
elo momentum (last 5)3.05-39.24
eye test v1-0.89-0.65
eye trend v10.03-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)53.8052.40
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v1—0.60
league points28.0021.00
league rank18.0020.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win3.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)59.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)42.4047.60
rest days5.827.00
scorer concentration0.320.25
season ppg0.970.72
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.202.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0014.60
skill v1-2.03-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.331.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.80
squad age26.5127.37
state index-0.33-1.38
sterile dominance v1-1.20-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.290.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20