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Sudtirol 3–0 Cremonese

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Mar 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win47%2.08
Draw31%3.14
Sudtirol win22%4.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol +0.553%1.84
Cremonese +0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.52
Over36%2.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Zan Majer · Cremonese
39'⚽Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol
49'⚽Riccardo Ciervo · Sudtirol
83'⚽Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots18
4On target2
0Corners7
9Fouls6
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.590.65
cards avg (last 5)3.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days106.00197.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.633.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.61
elo1471.241599.67
elo momentum (last 5)5.2418.73
eye test v1-0.790.09
eye trend v10.290.10
first sub minute (last 10)60.3055.20
form points (last 5)8.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.620.80
league points35.0056.00
league rank13.003.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2083.80
possession avg (last 5)55.2058.00
rest days7.006.91
scorer concentration0.200.30
season ppg1.211.93
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.605.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.0015.60
skill v10.901.14
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.304.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.00
squad age30.7428.95
state index-0.030.66
sterile dominance v11.190.50
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.160.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.60