← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Mar 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 46% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 |
| Sudtirol win | 23% | 4.47 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.5 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Spezia −0.5 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.43 |
| Over | 33% | 2.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 34' | 🟨 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 52' | 🟨 | Simone Davì · Sudtirol |
| 56' | 🟨 | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fabian Tait · Sudtirol |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nicola Rauti · Sudtirol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Falcinelli · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 129.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1452.45 | 1480.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.52 | -3.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 30.60 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |