← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Mar 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 36% | 2.74 |
| Modena win | 33% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Modena +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Thomas Battistella · Modena |
| 37' | 🟨 | Shady Oukhadda · Modena |
| 70' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fabio Ponsi · Modena |
| 84' | 🟥 | Dennis Johnsen · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simone Santoro · Modena |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 276.00 | 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1460.29 | 1584.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.18 | 5.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 36.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 4.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 26.59 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |