⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Como 1907 1–1 Parma Calcio 1913

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 win38%2.64
Parma Calcio 1913 win32%3.04
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 +054%1.83
Parma Calcio 1913 +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Adrian Benedyczak · Parma Calcio 1913
24'⚽Simone Verdi · Como 1907
40'🟨Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907
87'🟨Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907
89'🟨Nahuel Estévez · Parma Calcio 1913
90'🟨Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
5Shots14
2On target5
3Corners3
11Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricComo 1907Parma Calcio 1913
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.600.56
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
1.60
coach days85.00572.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.14
corner diff avg (last 5)3.002.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.352.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.17
dominance (last 5)0.600.57
elo1503.501613.64
elo momentum (last 5)-19.7610.54
eye test v10.460.67
eye trend v1-0.540.18
first sub minute (last 10)51.3047.30
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.620.66
league points45.0054.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2080.60
possession avg (last 5)55.8047.60
rest days7.007.09
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg1.802.16
shot diff avg (last 5)6.002.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.2015.20
skill v10.680.19
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.505.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.40
squad age27.7624.71
state index-0.120.53
sterile dominance v10.12-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.300.31
threat rate (last 3)0.320.34
threat rate (last 5)0.290.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00