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Lecco 1–3 Cosenza

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Feb 17, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Perenzoni

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lecco win37%2.63
Cosenza win32%3.13
Draw31%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lecco +055%1.79
Cosenza +045%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Gennaro Tutino · Cosenza
19'🟨Marco Frigerio · Lecco
22'🟨Elio Capradossi · Lecco
27'🟨Giovanni Crociata · Lecco
38'🟨Bright Gyamfi · Cosenza
42'🟨Franco Lepore · Lecco
45'⚽ (pen)Gennaro Tutino · Cosenza
54'⚽Gianluca Frabotta · Cosenza
61'⚽ (og)Michael Venturi · Lecco
65'🟨Michele Camporese · Cosenza
72'🟨Gianluca Frabotta · Cosenza
83'🟨Alessandro Sersanti · Lecco
87'🟨Michael Venturi · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
25Shots15
6On target6
13Corners2
12Fouls12
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeccoCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.740.65
cards avg (last 5)2.404.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Rigamonti Ceppi
coach days16.00231.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.033.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.270.08
dominance (last 5)0.510.48
elo1388.561427.19
elo momentum (last 5)-63.7830.59
eye test v1-0.310.04
eye trend v1-0.16-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)50.4055.00
form points (last 5)0.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.700.71
league points20.0029.00
league rank20.0014.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet9.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0050.40
rest days6.917.00
scorer concentration0.250.33
season ppg0.831.21
shot diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8012.40
skill v1-0.080.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-1.40-0.07
sterile dominance v1-0.10-0.00
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00