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Sudtirol 0–3 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Feb 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Minelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win40%2.58
Draw31%3.10
Sudtirol win29%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol +0.2555%1.78
Venezia FC +0.2545%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
18'🟨Andrea Masiello · Sudtirol
20'🟨Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol
57'🟨Fabian Tait · Sudtirol
65'🟨Jesse Joronen · Venezia FC
75'🟨Andrea Masiello · Sudtirol
75'🟥Andrea Masiello · Sudtirol
81'⚽Francesco Zampano · Venezia FC
84'🟨Emanuele Pecorino · Sudtirol
85'🟨Giorgio Altare · Venezia FC
87'🟨Andrea Cagnano · Sudtirol
89'🟨Nicola Rauti · Sudtirol
90'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots14
2On target4
5Corners3
15Fouls18
7Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.35
box share (last 5)0.650.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days71.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
466.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.38
elo1474.571515.89
elo momentum (last 5)-4.44-12.29
eye test v1-0.780.63
eye trend v1-0.04-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.2057.40
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.37
keeper form v10.620.71
league points27.0041.00
league rank14.005.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6082.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2059.00
rest days5.917.00
scorer concentration0.190.17
season ppg1.171.78
skill v1-0.511.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.005.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.40
state index-0.27-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.160.57
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80