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Cittadella 1–2 Parma Calcio 1913

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Feb 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win43%2.20
Draw30%3.22
Cittadella win26%3.86

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 +0.2553%1.85
Cittadella +0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Stefano Negro · Cittadella
8'⚽Adrián Bernabé · Parma Calcio 1913
16'🟨Nahuel Estévez · Parma Calcio 1913
37'🟨Matteo Angeli · Cittadella
38'⚽Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913
45'⚽Stefano Negro · Cittadella
56'🟨Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
23Shots16
3On target4
6Corners4
13Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCittadellaParma Calcio 1913
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.710.57
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
2.00
coach days954.00558.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.203.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.202.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.14
dominance (last 5)0.550.60
elo1468.251600.73
elo momentum (last 5)-30.193.13
eye test v1-0.430.46
eye trend v1-0.43-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)56.1047.30
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.780.67
league points36.0048.00
league rank6.001.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)53.6052.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.21
season ppg1.572.09
skill v1-0.020.51
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.00
squad age—27.47
state index-0.490.46
sterile dominance v1-0.030.05
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.260.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00