← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Feb 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 37% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Brescia win | 31% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Cittadella +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.46 |
| Over | 34% | 2.85 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Stefano Negro · Cittadella |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gennaro Borrelli · Brescia |
| 52' | ⚽ | Gennaro Borrelli · Brescia |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gabriele Moncini · Brescia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Filippo Pittarello · Cittadella |
| 78' | 🟨 | Massimo Bertagnoli · Brescia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Simone Branca · Cittadella |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| coach days | 94.00 | 947.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1452.47 | 1481.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.14 | -1.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 28.11 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |