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Venezia FC 5–3 Sampdoria

← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win51%1.93
Draw28%3.40
Sampdoria win22%4.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC −0.551%1.93
Sampdoria −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.73
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Antonino La Gumina · Sampdoria
3'🟨Nunzio Lella · Venezia FC
16'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
30'⚽Leonardo Benedetti · Sampdoria
36'⚽ (pen)Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
41'🟨Leonardo Benedetti · Sampdoria
43'🟨Valerio Verre · Sampdoria
44'🟨Leonardo Benedetti · Sampdoria
44'🟥Leonardo Benedetti · Sampdoria
48'🟨Marin Šverko · Venezia FC
58'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
65'⚽Manuel De Luca · Sampdoria
68'🟨Dennis Johnsen · Venezia FC
71'⚽Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria
74'⚽Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC
77'⚽Mikael Ellertsson · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
17Shots7
8On target3
1Corners2
15Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCSampdoria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
box share (last 5)0.760.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days439.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
227.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.46
elo1526.461457.02
elo momentum (last 5)-20.27-7.17
eye test v10.210.33
eye trend v1-0.180.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.7062.70
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.52
keeper form v1—0.70
league points35.0025.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank3.0012.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8078.60
possession avg (last 5)61.0054.80
rest days19.0518.82
scorer concentration0.180.25
season ppg1.841.32
skill v11.230.44
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age—22.98
state index-0.13-0.24
sterile dominance v11.03-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.160.32
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40