← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Jan 13, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 44% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Brescia win | 25% | 4.18 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Brescia −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.51 |
| Over | 36% | 2.69 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (og) | Giovanni Zaro · Brescia |
| 24' | 🟨 | Matteo Cotali · Modena |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nicolas Galazzi · Brescia |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Dickmann · Brescia |
| 36' | 🟨 | Thomas Battistella · Modena |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luca Strizzolo · Modena |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Luca Tremolada · Modena |
| 54' | 🟨 | Cristian Cauz · Modena |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Andrenacci · Brescia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tom Van De Looi · Brescia |
| 86' | 🟨 | Matthieu Huard · Brescia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitri Bisoli · Brescia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 226.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1453.77 | 1446.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.52 | 31.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 17.96 | 17.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |