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Catanzaro 5–3 Lecco

← Serie B 2023 · Fri, Jan 12, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Catanzaro win53%1.83
Draw27%3.50
Lecco win20%5.07

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lecco −0.7553%1.85
Catanzaro −0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Luca Verna · Catanzaro
19'🟨Mats Lemmens · Lecco
22'🟨Stefano Scognamillo · Catanzaro
25'⚽Lorenzo Di Stefano · Lecco
29'⚽Mats Lemmens · Lecco
48'⚽Dimitrios Sounas · Catanzaro
51'🟨Dimitrios Sounas · Catanzaro
52'⚽Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro
55'⚽Andrija Novakovich · Lecco
65'⚽Dimitrios Sounas · Catanzaro
72'🟨Luka Krajnc · Catanzaro
88'⚽Tommaso Biasci · Catanzaro
90'🟨Giovanni Crociata · Lecco

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
20Shots14
9On target4
9Corners4
13Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCatanzaroLecco
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.710.54
cards avg (last 5)3.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Nicola Ceravolo
coach days802.00103.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.602.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.45
elo1374.731452.34
elo momentum (last 5)6.12-0.02
eye test v10.380.12
eye trend v1-0.19-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)61.2056.80
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v10.740.74
league points30.0020.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0076.60
possession avg (last 5)56.8047.60
rest days17.3317.23
scorer concentration0.220.26
season ppg1.581.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.6011.80
skill v11.17-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
squad age27.1628.14
state index-0.37-0.32
sterile dominance v11.19-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.170.28
threat rate (last 3)0.120.25
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60