← Serie B 2023 · Tue, Dec 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Minelli
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 34% | 2.97 |
| Cittadella win | 34% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cittadella +0 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.45 |
| Over | 33% | 2.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Stefano Negro · Cittadella |
| 25' | 🟨 | Nicola Falasco · Ascoli |
| 33' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Ascoli |
| 57' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Ascoli |
| 69' | 🟨 | Simone Branca · Cittadella |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nicola Pavan · Cittadella |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alessandro Salvi · Cittadella |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |
| coach days | 55.00 | 908.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1420.69 | 1498.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.93 | 45.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 16.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 2.95 | 3.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.05 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 26.92 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |