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Como 1907 3–3 Palermo

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Dec 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 win44%2.21
Draw30%3.25
Palermo win26%3.83

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 −0.2552%1.88
Palermo −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Federico Di Francesco · Palermo
41'🟨Marco Sala · Como 1907
46'⚽Patrick Cutrone · Como 1907
48'🟨Ionuț Nedelcearu · Palermo
53'🟨Ivan Marconi · Palermo
58'⚽Alessandro Gabrielloni · Como 1907
63'⚽Jacopo Segre · Palermo
66'🟨Patrick Cutrone · Como 1907
67'🟨Marco Curto · Como 1907
81'🟨Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907
82'⚽Simon Graves Jensen · Palermo
90'🟥Ivan Marconi · Palermo
90'⚽ (pen)Simone Verdi · Como 1907

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots12
8On target6
4Corners6
13Fouls10
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricComo 1907Palermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.580.66
cards avg (last 5)2.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
coach days22.00509.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.392.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.10
dominance (last 5)0.540.43
elo1501.861524.44
elo momentum (last 5)5.84-22.45
eye test v10.340.14
eye trend v10.080.30
first sub minute (last 10)59.6052.20
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.820.73
league points31.0028.00
league rank5.007.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)55.8048.40
rest days7.006.91
scorer concentration0.280.21
season ppg1.821.65
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.8013.00
skill v10.84-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
squad age26.5328.37
state index0.17-0.17
sterile dominance v10.37-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60