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Parma Calcio 1913 3–1 Ternana

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Dec 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win60%1.60
Draw23%4.20
Ternana win17%6.15

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ternana −151%1.89
Parma Calcio 1913 −149%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Antonio Raimondo · Ternana
10'⚽Dennis Man · Parma Calcio 1913
14'🟨Jakub Łabojko · Ternana
52'⚽Wylan Cyprien · Parma Calcio 1913
55'⚽Adrián Bernabé · Parma Calcio 1913
68'🟨Lorenzo Lucchesi · Ternana
88'🟨Iulius Marginean · Ternana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
21Shots12
8On target2
5Corners8
10Fouls7
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913Ternana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.660.58
cards avg (last 5)4.003.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
coach days509.0052.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.811.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.07
dominance (last 5)0.610.45
elo1591.701406.98
elo momentum (last 5)-17.5149.70
eye test v10.800.38
eye trend v1-0.070.29
first sub minute (last 10)52.7051.80
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.700.73
league points35.0017.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6072.60
possession avg (last 5)56.6046.40
rest days6.915.91
scorer concentration0.200.30
season ppg2.061.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.80-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.6014.80
skill v10.95-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)2.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.00
squad age25.5326.09
state index0.190.20
sterile dominance v10.40-0.98
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.33
threat rate (last 5)0.270.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60