← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Dec 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Cittadella win | 26% | 3.87 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cittadella −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Modena −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.47 |
| Over | 34% | 2.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Edoardo Duca · Modena |
| 17' | 🟨 | Claudio Cassano · Cittadella |
| 18' | 🟨 | Alessandro Salvi · Cittadella |
| 29' | ⚽ | Claudio Cassano · Cittadella |
| 36' | 🟨 | Valerio Mastrantonio · Cittadella |
| 46' | 🟨 | Diego Falcinelli · Modena |
| 79' | 🟨 | Simone Branca · Cittadella |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 198.00 | 898.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1463.43 | 1482.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.49 | 52.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 28.38 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |