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Parma Calcio 1913 3–3 Palermo

← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win50%1.95
Draw27%3.60
Palermo win23%4.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 −0.551%1.91
Palermo −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo
16'🟨Federico Di Francesco · Palermo
18'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo
35'🟨Botond Balogh · Parma Calcio 1913
51'⚽Nahuel Estévez · Parma Calcio 1913
55'🟨Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913
64'🟨Ange-Yoan Bonny · Parma Calcio 1913
80'🟨Nicola Valente · Palermo
85'⚽Jacopo Segre · Palermo
90'🟨Adrian Benedyczak · Parma Calcio 1913
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
24Shots8
7On target3
10Corners1
16Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913Palermo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.33
box share (last 5)0.610.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days496.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
Aleš Matějů
· Palermo
90'⚽Valentin Mihăilă · Parma Calcio 1913
90'⚽Gabriel Charpentier · Parma Calcio 1913
496.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.603.86
elo1588.231501.27
elo momentum (last 5)13.22-34.86
eye test v10.64-0.18
eye trend v10.18-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)55.0051.10
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.95
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v1—0.75
league points33.0024.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank11.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6077.80
possession avg (last 5)51.6052.40
rest days8.008.82
scorer concentration0.230.17
season ppg2.201.60
skill v10.510.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.00
squad age27.47—
state index0.61-0.38
sterile dominance v10.340.34
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00