← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Dec 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 37% | 2.76 |
| Ascoli win | 32% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Ascoli +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 31' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
| 32' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Ascoli |
| 51' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Bellusci · Ascoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Simone D'Uffizi · Ascoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Spezia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Szymon Żurkowski · Spezia |
| 89' | ⚽ | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Haveri · Ascoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |
| coach days | 38.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1431.24 | 1465.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.38 | -33.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 25.58 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |