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Spezia 2–2 Ternana

← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Nov 12, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win50%2.03
Draw28%3.50
Ternana win22%4.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ternana −0.552%1.88
Spezia −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Tiago Casasola · Ternana
36'⚽Nicolò Bertola · Spezia
37'🟨Salvatore Esposito · Spezia
37'🟨Andrea Favilli · Ternana
66'🟨Jakub Łabojko · Ternana
67'⚽Salim Diakité · Ternana
69'🟨Tiago Casasola · Ternana
75'🟨Rachid Kouda · Spezia
90'⚽ (og)Marco Capuano · Spezia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
22Shots13
9On target5
4Corners5
19Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpeziaTernana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.14
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.550.61
cards avg (last 5)4.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Picco
coach days11.0011.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.691.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.09
dominance (last 5)0.510.51
elo1487.031357.27
elo momentum (last 5)-14.74-3.64
eye test v10.48-0.47
eye trend v10.06-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)56.8053.10
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.750.68
league points9.006.00
league rank17.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4072.80
possession avg (last 5)50.6044.60
rest days3.918.09
scorer concentration0.290.22
season ppg0.750.50
shot diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.6012.60
skill v1-0.07-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
squad age25.4926.28
state index-0.54-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.340.26
threat rate (last 5)0.330.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20