← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Sampdoria win | 27% | 3.64 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Luca Magnino · Modena |
| 24' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 31' | ⚽ | Sebastiano Esposito · Sampdoria |
| 63' | ⚽ | Pajtim Kasami · Sampdoria |
| 74' | 🟨 | Abdoul Guiebre · Modena |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · Sampdoria |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabio Abiuso · Modena |
| 77' | 🟥 | Fabio Abiuso · Modena |
| 81' | 🟨 | Thomas Battistella · Modena |
| 82' | 🟨 | Simone Giordano · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 163.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1476.69 | 1477.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.50 | -1.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 24.69 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |