⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Venezia FC 2–1 Catanzaro

← Serie B 2023 · Fri, Nov 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win46%2.10
Draw28%3.53
Catanzaro win26%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Catanzaro −0.552%1.88
Venezia FC −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Mario Šitum · Catanzaro
25'⚽ (pen)Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC
40'⚽Andrea Ghion · Catanzaro
45'⚽Dennis Johnsen · Venezia FC
58'🟨Giorgio Altare · Venezia FC
89'🟥Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason · Venezia FC
90'🟨Christian Gytkjær · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots6
5On target2
1Corners3
8Fouls17
2Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCCatanzaro
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.53
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.650.55
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days374.00739.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.171.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.490.46
elo1537.391356.27
elo momentum (last 5)27.2036.66
eye test v1-0.130.36
eye trend v10.19-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)53.9058.30
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.34
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.680.63
league points24.0021.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2083.40
possession avg (last 5)53.2059.20
rest days6.276.27
scorer concentration0.240.27
season ppg2.001.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.40
skill v10.611.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.60
squad age25.4326.75
state index0.45-0.04
sterile dominance v10.551.47
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.15
threat rate (last 5)0.220.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00