← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 49% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Spezia win | 24% | 4.36 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Cremonese −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Leonardo Sernicola · Cremonese |
| 22' | 🟨 | Lukas Mühl · Spezia |
| 29' | ⚽ | Luca Zanimacchia · Cremonese |
| 39' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel · Cremonese |
| 52' | ⚽ | Massimo Coda · Cremonese |
| 81' | 🟨 | Valentin Antov · Cremonese |
| 84' | 🟨 | Michele Collocolo · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟥 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cremonese | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini |
| coach days | 65.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1533.90 | 1499.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.66 | 5.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 8.86 | 8.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 24.49 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |