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Cosenza 1–1 Feralpisalo

← Serie B 2023 Β· Sat, Nov 4, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Gualtieri

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza win51%1.92
Draw28%3.40
Feralpisalo win21%4.73

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza βˆ’0.551%1.92
Feralpisalo βˆ’0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Mattia Felici · Feralpisalo
19'⚽Michael Venturi · Cosenza
30'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
32'🟨Mattia Tonetto · Feralpisalo
62'⚽Karlo ButiΔ‡ Β· Feralpisalo
68'🟨Simone Mazzocchi · Cosenza
77'🟨Bruno Martella · Feralpisalo
90'🟨Luca Fiordilino · Feralpisalo

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots19
3On target5
6Corners8
12Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaFeralpisalo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
box share (last 5)0.610.64
cards avg (last 5)4.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days126.0034.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.601.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.18
dominance (last 5)0.480.48
elo1434.761397.65
elo momentum (last 5)12.42-37.09
eye test v10.45-0.11
eye trend v10.400.59
first sub minute (last 10)57.6056.50
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30β€”
keeper form v10.800.61
league points15.005.00
league rank9.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0011.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8076.40
possession avg (last 5)47.8044.00
rest days7.047.04
scorer concentration0.230.40
season ppg1.360.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.60
skill v10.05-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age26.9926.74
state index-0.10-0.98
sterile dominance v1-0.49-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.35
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80