← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Nov 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro win | 42% | 2.37 |
| Modena win | 30% | 3.27 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Catanzaro −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Jacopo Manconi · Modena |
| 15' | 🟨 | Fabio Ponsi · Modena |
| 19' | ⚽ | Jari Vandeputte · Catanzaro |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jacopo Manconi · Modena |
| 59' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kleis Bozhanaj · Modena |
| 86' | 🟨 | Stefano Scognamillo · Catanzaro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kleis Bozhanaj · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 27 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Catanzaro | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Nicola Ceravolo |
| coach days | 733.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1365.05 | 1467.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.29 | -7.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.66 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.47 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |