← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Perenzoni
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Ternana win | 24% | 4.41 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ternana −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Modena −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 46' | 🟨 | Gregorio Luperini · Ternana |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fabio Ponsi · Modena |
| 55' | 🟨 | Salim Diakité · Ternana |
| 56' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Modena |
| 79' | 🟨 | Diego Falcinelli · Modena |
| 83' | 🟨 | Andrea Seculin · Modena |
| 90' | ⚽ | Federico Dionisi · Ternana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 150.00 | 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1462.03 | 1370.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.32 | 3.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 4.95 | 8.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 27.24 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |