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Venezia FC 2–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win46%2.15
Draw28%3.40
Pisa win25%3.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC −0.2553%1.83
Pisa −0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Bruno Bertinato · Venezia FC
6'⚽ (pen)Mattia Valoti · Pisa
8'🟨Maxime Leverbe · Pisa
17'🟨Tommaso Barbieri · Pisa
31'⚽Nicholas Pierini · Venezia FC
50'🟨Hjörtur Hermannsson · Pisa
74'⚽Dennis Johnsen · Venezia FC
80'🟨Ali Dembélé · Venezia FC
90'🟨Stefano Moreo · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots8
3On target3
6Corners4
8Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)2.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days362.00120.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.540.47
elo1523.371475.37
elo momentum (last 5)-4.81-19.54
eye test v1-0.330.44
eye trend v10.310.25
first sub minute (last 10)54.5043.20
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.630.73
league points18.0012.00
league rank4.0014.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4081.20
possession avg (last 5)55.0057.20
rest days6.954.95
scorer concentration0.210.13
season ppg1.801.20
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.6013.40
skill v10.830.87
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.80
squad age25.5325.99
state index0.12-0.23
sterile dominance v10.470.68
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60