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Feralpisalo 0–3 Reggiana

← Serie B 2023 Β· Sat, Oct 28, 12:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Feralpisalo win35%2.92
Reggiana win34%2.90
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana +051%1.93
Feralpisalo +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Janis Antiste · Reggiana
23'🟨Luca Ceppitelli · Feralpisalo
25'🟨Cedric Gondo · Reggiana
35'🟨Mattia Felici · Feralpisalo
43'⚽ (pen)Luca Cigarini · Reggiana
55'⚽Edoardo Pieragnolo · Reggiana

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
19Shots9
4On target9
6Corners3
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFeralpisaloReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.24
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.05
box share (last 5)0.630.59
cards avg (last 5)2.403.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Leonardo Garilli
coach days27.00149.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.48
elo1420.021380.63
elo momentum (last 5)-25.3218.00
eye test v1-0.27-0.56
eye trend v10.540.14
first sub minute (last 10)57.2049.30
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.05
keeper form v10.600.73
league points5.0011.00
league rank19.0015.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6082.60
possession avg (last 5)41.8053.40
rest days6.915.81
scorer concentration0.400.43
season ppg0.501.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.80
skill v1-0.620.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.602.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.80
squad age26.1726.77
state index-0.71-0.24
sterile dominance v1-0.710.61
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.280.22
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)β€”1.00