← Serie B 2023 · Tue, Oct 24, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Baroni
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 35% | 2.83 |
| Modena win | 34% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Modena +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.54 |
| Over | 37% | 2.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 55' | 🟨 | Abdoul Guiebre · Modena |
| 75' | 🟨 | Antonio Pergreffi · Modena |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luca Lezzerini · Brescia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrea Papetti · Brescia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Birkir Bjarnason · Brescia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| coach days | 265.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1456.61 | 1450.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.64 | -23.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 26.58 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |