← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Oct 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 36% | 2.90 |
| Palermo win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Modena +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟥 | Shady Oukhadda · Modena |
| 44' | 🟨 | Fabio Lucioni · Palermo |
| 47' | ⚽ | Liam Henderson · Palermo |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jacopo Manconi · Modena |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mamadou Coulibaly · Palermo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Edoardo Duca · Modena |
| 69' | 🟨 | Federico Di Francesco · Palermo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leonardo Mancuso · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 128.00 | 432.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1459.19 | 1557.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.97 | 30.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |