β Serie B 2023 Β· Sun, Oct 1, 02:15 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Volpi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cittadella win | 58% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
| Lecco win | 16% | 6.17 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cittadella β0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Lecco β0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 26 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato |