⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Modena 1–3 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Sep 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tremolada

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Modena win40%2.47
Venezia FC win31%3.17
Draw30%3.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC −0.2553%1.82
Modena −0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Fabio Gerli · Modena
48'⚽Nicholas Bonfanti · Modena
55'⚽Giorgio Altare · Venezia FC
57'🟨Shady Oukhadda · Modena
57'🟨Francesco Zampano · Venezia FC
76'⚽Christian Gytkjær · Venezia FC
83'⚽Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason · Venezia FC
85'🟨Giorgio Altare · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots9
4On target4
7Corners3
9Fouls5
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricModenaVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.13
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.540.59
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Braglia
coach days121.00333.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.10
dominance (last 5)0.620.51
elo1475.271510.19
elo momentum (last 5)28.091.57
eye test v10.37-0.72
eye trend v10.14-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)53.2053.60
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.750.75
league points12.0012.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0078.20
possession avg (last 5)56.0052.40
rest days3.733.73
scorer concentration0.500.38
season ppg2.001.71
shot diff avg (last 5)6.80-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.6012.80
skill v10.860.30
sot against avg (last 5)2.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.331.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.40
squad age26.9325.95
state index0.39-0.12
sterile dominance v10.150.22
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.310.26
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00