β Serie B 2023 Β· Sat, Sep 23, 12:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Perenzoni
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Modena win | 61% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.03 |
| Lecco win | 15% | 6.95 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lecco β1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Modena β1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |