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Modena 2–0 Pisa

← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Sep 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Baroni

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Modena win41%2.38
Draw31%3.20
Pisa win28%3.55

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa −0.2551%1.91
Modena −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Luca Tremolada · Modena
34'🟥Hjörtur Hermannsson · Pisa
43'🟨Pietro Beruatto · Pisa
52'🟨Antonio Palumbo · Modena
66'🟨Giovanni Zaro · Modena
86'🟨Gaetano Masucci · Pisa
90'⚽Luca Strizzolo · Modena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots6
4On target2
7Corners7
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricModenaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.520.71
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Braglia
coach days93.0063.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.202.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.15
dominance (last 5)0.510.54
elo1458.221497.74
elo momentum (last 5)24.82-19.18
eye test v10.11-0.06
eye trend v10.070.03
first sub minute (last 10)55.9053.90
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.660.66
matches since blank5.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8077.20
possession avg (last 5)51.6052.00
rest days3.923.92
season ppg3.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)0.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2013.80
skill v10.390.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age27.7427.98
state index0.23-0.31
sterile dominance v10.15-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80