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Ternana 0–1 Cremonese

← Serie B 2023 · Wed, Aug 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win40%2.49
Ternana win31%3.20
Draw29%3.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ternana +0.2554%1.80
Cremonese +0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Luca Ravanelli · Cremonese
41'🟨Michele Castagnetti · Cremonese
49'🟨Salim Diakité · Ternana
62'🟨Luca Ravanelli · Cremonese
62'🟥Luca Ravanelli · Cremonese
65'⚽Massimo Coda · Cremonese
90'🟨César Falletti · Ternana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots17
4On target4
8Corners5
10Fouls8
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTernanaCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.530.53
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Libero Liberati
coach days272.00241.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.622.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.13
dominance (last 5)0.490.59
elo1376.461523.49
elo momentum (last 5)-44.44-15.96
eye test v1-0.040.33
eye trend v10.330.23
first sub minute (last 10)49.1050.00
form points (last 5)0.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.570.75
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.001.00
matches since win7.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)46.0044.80
rest days3.004.00
season ppg0.000.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.404.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.0015.60
skill v1-0.200.21
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age26.4328.05
state index-1.19-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.92-0.79
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.420.37
threat rate (last 5)0.340.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80